Hurricane Isaias threatens Gulf refineries as it nears Category 3 strength

Hurricane Isaias, currently a Category 1 storm, is forecast to reach Category 3 with winds up to 100 mph before making landfall Friday around 2 p.m., threatening Gulf Coast refineries and ports. Gulf State refineries in the storm’s path represent half of the nation’s refining capacity, or 18.2 million barrels per day.

Tender rejections in New Orleans, Mobile, and Montgomery are already running between 17% and 19%, above national averages, as shippers move freight ahead of the storm. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected across the region, with isolated totals possibly reaching 10 inches, raising flood concerns for inland routes. The Ports of Mobile and New Orleans lie in the projected impact zone, while FEMA staging sites in Jacksonville and Atlanta could spur emergency freight demand after landfall.

“I do not play about the weather,” Malcolm Harris, who provided the meteorological analysis said.

What we know

• Hurricane Isaias, currently a Category 1 storm, is forecast to strengthen to a Category 2 by Wednesday and potentially reach Category 3 with winds of up to 100 miles per hour before making landfall Friday around 2 p.m., according to a FreightWaves Sonar analysis.

• Up to six refineries sit in the storm’s path, and Gulf State refineries collectively account for 50% of the nation’s refining capacity — a total of 18.2 million barrels per day.

• Tender rejections in New Orleans, Mobile, and Montgomery are already running in the 17% to 19% range, edging above national averages.

• Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across a broad swath of the region, with localized amounts potentially reaching 10 inches.

• FEMA staging locations — including Jacksonville and Atlanta — could also generate emergency freight demand in the days following landfall.