Import volumes forecast to rise 9.6% as ocean peak season extends into September

Import volumes are forecast to rise 9.6% year over year in September, according to a Global Port Tracker report published Sept. 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. The continued strength contradicts earlier expectations of an early peak‑season end, with executives now projecting the season to close by the end of September instead of the typical first or second week of November.

The Port of Los Angeles handled 955,907 TEUs in August, a 6% increase over its five‑year average and marking the busiest three‑month stretch in the port’s history. Global Port Tracker projects September U.S. port imports at 2.31 million TEUs, up 9.6% from a year earlier, while October is expected to fall to 2.11 million TEUs, a 1.7% year‑over‑year decline. Analysts attribute the sustained volume to recent typhoons in China and shippers avoiding the Panama Canal due to drought‑related restrictions.

“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” Jonathan Gold, VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, National Retail Federation said.

“Resilient consumer demand, early holiday shipments and a broad mix of cargo have all contributed to that strength,” Gene Seroka, Executive Director, Port of Los Angeles said.

An Aug. 7 Port Tracker update had forecast container import volumes to stay high in August and then decline steadily through the remainder of the year. That outlook was based on expectations of shipper frontloading that would bring the peak season to an early close.

What we know

Global Port Tracker report published Sept. 9 by NRF and Hackett Associates
Port of Los Angeles processed 955,907 TEUs in August, up 6% above its five‑year average
September U.S. port imports forecast at 2.31 million TEUs, 9.6% higher than previous year
October U.S. port imports expected to drop 1.7% year over year to 2.11 million TEUs
Historically ocean peak season runs through the first or second week of November; this year expected to end by end of September