RXO warns diesel prices may push more truck capacity out in Q4

RXO’s Corey Klujsza says diesel prices could push more truck capacity out of the market heading into the fourth quarter, with spot linehaul rates already more than 40% above year‑ago levels. He noted that the average carrier’s operating margin remains far below where it stood at the peak of the last upcycle, creating a supply‑side catalyst even if demand stays muted. The Cass Freight Shipment Index posted its first year‑over‑year positive print in roughly 40 to 42 months in August, signaling a modest volume rebound to the for‑hire market.

quotes

“The linehaul yield for the average carrier in the market is really nowhere close to what it was in the past cycle,” Corey Klujsza, VP of Pricing and Procurement at RXO said.

“single digits really won’t cut it going into 2027, given the timing of the last procurement event,” Corey Klujsza, VP of Pricing and Procurement at RXO said.

Earlier in Q3, spot rates had inched toward all‑time highs around the Fourth of July before cooling over the past several weeks, according to Klujsza.

What we know

Spot linehaul rates are running more than 40% above year-ago levels.
Average carrier’s operating margin remains far below where it stood at the peak of the last upcycle.
Cass Freight Shipment Index posted its first year-over-year positive print in roughly 40 to 42 months in August.
He expects full 2027 contract bids to reflect double-digit year-over-year increases.
Shippers are paring down their carrier and broker networks in response to heightened fraud and compliance risk.