43% of consumers plan to spend more this holiday season despite inflation

According to Kenco’s 2026 Peak Season Consumer Report, 43 percent of shoppers say they will spend more this holiday season while 39 percent expect to spend about the same. Only 18 percent intend to spend less, down from 28 percent a year earlier, and Adobe predicts Cyber Monday will top $15 billion in online sales.

The report found that 73 percent of respondents consider free shipping standard when shopping online, while 48 percent expect two‑day delivery. About 47 percent anticipate free returns and 40 percent look for real‑time tracking of shipments. Return policies remain influential, with 82 percent saying a policy is important or very important when choosing where to shop and 24 percent noting a poor experience could stop them from buying again. Additionally, 60 percent of consumers said they are likely to use an AI tool for holiday shopping and more than half expect at least 20 percent of gifts to come from social media platforms.

“is expected to set a new milestone for U.S. e-commerce, with consumers spending over $15 billion online in a single day (up 6.2 percent year over year),” Adobe researchers said.

In 2025, 28 percent of consumers said they planned to spend less during the holiday season.

What we know

43 percent of consumers plan to spend more during the 2026 peak season
39 percent of consumers expect to spend about the same during the 2026 peak season
18 percent of consumers plan to spend less during the 2026 peak season, compared to 28 percent in 2025
Cyber Monday is expected to generate over $15 billion in online sales, up 6.2 percent year over year
Black Friday is expected to generate $12.9 billion in sales, up 9.2 percent year over year