Diesel up 10 cents, spot rates up 2 cents, squeezing trucking margins
Diesel prices rose $0.10 per gallon in one week to just under $6.57 while truckload spot rates gained only $0.02 per mile over the same period, according to FreightWaves data as of Monday, Sept. 28. The widening gap between fuel costs and spot rates is compressing margins for trucking companies and putting a premium on load utilization.
The National Truckload Index was 5.2% higher than a month earlier, when it stood at $3.28 per mile, while diesel prices were 16.5% above the same prior month. Tender rejections have remained near 14%, a level described as healthy and well above year‑ago readings, giving carriers continued negotiating leverage with shippers. Regulatory pressure on non‑domiciled commercial driver’s licenses and the shutdown of substandard driving schools are raising barriers to entry, further tightening capacity independent of demand. Freight demand remains muted as the Sonar Truckload Volume Index has stayed flat through 2024, with weak automotive and housing sectors keeping overall volumes low heading into peak season. Contract rates continue to climb, intermodal maintains momentum as shippers convert loads for cost savings, and inbound import volumes remain solid.
“Fuel is rising more quickly than spot rates,” Julie Van de Kamp, analyst said.
“There are so many reasons that there’s still pressure on trucking companies and pulling demand capacity out of the market while demand has remained weak,” Julie Van de Kamp, analyst said.
Looking ahead through peak, Van de Kamp projected “an elongated and stable peak” rather than a sharp seasonal surge, with contract rates continuing to climb, intermodal maintaining momentum as shippers convert loads for cost savings, and inbound import volumes remaining solid. The Sonar Truckload Volume Index has held relatively flat through 2024, with two key freight drivers — automotive and housing — still running soft.
What we know
Diesel rose $0.10 per gallon in one week
Spot rates gained $0.02 per mile over the same week
Diesel prices are 16.5% higher than a month ago
The National Truckload Index is 5.2% above its level from last month
Tender rejections are holding around 14%