FreightWaves analysts warn US trucking market stays fragile as STRI jumps 75 basis points
At a New York shipper gathering on Tuesday, FreightWaves analysts Craig Fuller and Zach Strickland said the US trucking market remains fragile, noting the Sonar Tender Rejection Index fell below 14% after exceeding 17% in June. Strickland pointed out that the index has risen roughly 75 basis points in the last week, signaling renewed volatility.
He added that tender rejection rates have been climbing since November 2025, even as shippers shift more freight to intermodal rail services. Fuller noted that J.B. Hunt’s CEO Shelley Simpson also sees the market as fragile, but views tight capacity as a source of potential upside rather than pure risk. He added that while his Wall Street contacts warn of a disorderly supply chain reminiscent of COVID, the current freight environment remains orderly according to container‑ship data.
“The end result, he added, is “a new baseline.” But even that might not stick, Strickland said, citing the sharp move up in the STRI, which has gone up about 75 basis points in just the past week,” Zach Strickland, director of market intelligence, FreightWaves/SONAR said.
“Fuller said his Wall Street contacts are expressing concern about a “disorderly” supply chain reminiscent of COVID days. But he said that is not going to happen,” Craig Fuller, CEO, FreightWaves said.
Earlier State of Freight webinars in early 2026 had depicted a market advancing in large increments, but the analysts said they were now measuring a market that was not moving higher. The New York shipper meeting was sponsored by Cass Information Systems and SONAR. They attributed the description of the market as fragile to the recent movement in the Sonar Tender Rejection Index.
What we know
The Sonar Tender Rejection Index fell below 14% after exceeding 17% in June.
The STRI rose about 75 basis points in the past week.
Tender rejection rates have climbed starting in November 2025.
The shipper gathering took place on Tuesday in New York.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller spoke with J.B. Hunt CEO Shelley Simpson, who also viewed the trucking market as fragile.