Intermodal hits highs with 8% growth as truckload rejections hold near 14%
Domestic intermodal container volumes reached all-time highs with 8% year over year growth while truckload tender rejection rates held near 14% The shift signals freight moving from truck to rail, countering a typical early-October volume dip
Refrigerated freight gains support from active harvest season demand that typically persists through January. Rising diesel costs are pushing dry van, flatbed, and refrigerated spot rates higher, while rejection rates remain fuel‑agnostic. Smaller fleets with heavy spot market exposure absorb the costs when full fuel pass through is blocked, squeezing margins. Strickland warned that the rail network’s fixed infrastructure may struggle to sustain the 8% intermodal growth long term
“I know a lot of this freight is going intermodal at this point too,” Zach Strickland, analyst said.
“It does not look sustainable to me at this point,” Zach Strickland, analyst said.
Truckload markets normally see an early-October lull, but this year tender rejection rates have held near 14%. Intermodal volumes have posted consistent multi-year gains before reaching a new all-time high with 8% year over year growth
What we know
- Domestic intermodal volumes hit all-time highs with 8% year-over-year growth, raising questions about rail network capacity limits.
On the truckload side, the overall tender rejection rate has hovered around 14% — above August levels — and has not retreated despite the calendar flipping to Q4, which historically represents one of the softest freight periods of the entire fourth quarter.
Refrigerated freight is being supported by active harvest season demand that Strickland said typically persists through January during winter weather events.
While rejection rates are fuel-agnostic, spot rates are not, and rising diesel costs are pushing dry van, flatbed, and refrigerated spot rates higher.
Smaller fleets with heavy spot-market exposure are absorbing those costs when the market does not allow for full fuel cost pass-through, resulting in margin compression.