Samsara report shows top 10% of risk-ranked drivers cause 47% of crashes
Samsara’s new Compounding Risk Report, released recently, found that the top 10% of drivers ranked as highest risk by its Risk Model accounted for 47% of crashes. It also showed that 30% of drivers account for more than three‑fourths of all crashes, so fleet managers should prioritize coaching for this group.
The Risk Model evaluates more than 50 factors across driving behavior, exposure, situational context and driver development, including speeding, harsh braking, distracted driving and mobile phone use. Instead of assessing each safety event in isolation, the model examines how those factors occur together, which Samsara calls “compounding risk.”. For example, mobile phone use alone makes a driver 2.7 times more likely to fall into the highest risk tier, while adding harsh braking raises that to 4.5 times and adding distraction pushes it to 5.4 times. The model also powers Samsara’s new Coaching Priority feature, which aggregates risk factors into a single view to help managers identify recurring patterns rather than isolated alerts. The model also showed a potential signal before crashes, prioritizing the crash‑involved driver about three out of four times in both next‑day and seven‑day windows.
“The real key takeaways are that 10% of drivers account for nearly half of all crashes, 30% account for more than three‑fourths of crashes. So who you coach, who you zoom in on, really, really matters,” Arpan Podduturi, Samsara VP of AI safety said.
The report is based on Samsara’s Risk Model, which evaluates more than 50 factors across areas including driving behavior, exposure, situational context and driver development. Instead of evaluating each safety event on its own, the model looks at how those factors occur together, which Samsara refers to as “compounding risk.”.
What we know
The top 10% of drivers ranked as highest risk by Samsara’s Risk Model accounted for 47% of crashes in a new report released by the company.
“The real key takeaways are that 10% of drivers account for nearly half of all crashes, 30% account for more than three‑fourths of crashes.”
Drivers exhibiting mobile phone use alone were 2.7 times more likely to fall into the model’s highest risk tier than the overall driver population.
That figure increased to 4.5 times when mobile phone use was combined with harsh braking and 5.4 times when mobile use, distraction and harsh braking were present together.
When comparing drivers who were subsequently involved in a crash with those who were not, Samsara said the model prioritized the crash‑involved driver about three out of four times.