Truckload rates rise in 2026 as capacity exits market faster than freight
Truckload rates rose in 2026 as carriers exited the market faster than freight demand grew. The average cost to operate a truck reached a record $2.336 per mile in 2025, according to ATRI’s Operational Costs of Trucking study. Spot linehaul rates remained below non‑fuel costs every year from 2023 through 2025, while contract linehaul gradually recovered.
Contract linehaul rates averaged $2.69 per mile in Q3 2026, still below Q4 2021 levels and having rebuilt only about half the profit cushion carriers enjoyed in 2022. Tolls rose 13.2%, repair and maintenance 8.6%, driver benefits 6.6% and tires 6.4%, setting records across nearly every cost line. Tender rejections have surged, with the STRI up 268% since October 2023 while tender volume rose only about 9%, and for‑hire tractor counts fell by roughly 51,000 in a single month. To cover overhead, rates would need to be about 14% higher than current benchmark levels, and even running near the hours‑of‑service ceiling a typical truck still falls about 5% short.
Carriers spent three years hauling at rates that barely covered their costs, often falling short in the spot market. The 2026 rate increase is described as a correction that is only about halfway done. In 2022, dry van contract linehaul averaged $2.81 per mile, but by 2024‑2025 it had fallen to $2.32 while non‑fuel costs rose roughly 30% from 2021 to 2025.
What we know
Average cost of operating a truck was $2.336 per mile in 2025.
Dry van contract linehaul rate averaged $2.69 per mile in Q3 2026.
Tender rejection index (STRI) increased 268% since October 2023.
For-hire tractor counts fell by about 51,000 in a single month.
Rates would need to be about 14% higher to cover overhead.