Xeneta says Hormuz freight shock may have peaked after 344% rate surge
Xeneta reported that container rates from China to the U.S. East and West Coasts have risen 344 percent and 335 percent since February 28, but the market has likely reached its post‑Hormuz crisis peak. The spread between the two coasts has widened to $3,177 per 40‑foot equivalent unit, with East‑Coast bound containers averaging $11,523 and West‑Coast bound boxes averaging $8,346.
Xeneta forecasts that, looking three months ahead, spot rates could fall to $6,000‑$7,000 for East‑Coast destinations and $4,500‑$5,500 for the West Coast. The UAE’s National Association of Freight and Logistics notes that moving cargo into the Persian Gulf now costs three to five times pre‑war levels due to surcharges, rerouting and land‑transport expenses. Maritime security sources recorded at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers in the week of September 28 to October 5, the highest weekly total since the conflict began. The International Maritime Organization separately verified nine of those incidents, up from a previous weekly high of eight in mid‑July.
“We can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026,” Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and air freight benchmarking platform Xeneta said.
“The spread will narrow as the broader decline takes hold in the remainder of the year, driven mainly by a harder fall into the U.S. East Coast due to its more elevated starting point,” Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta said.
Before the Hormuz crisis, the cost gap between East and West Coast shipments was just $772 per 40‑foot unit. In the week of July 13, maritime logs recorded eight vessel attacks, the prior peak.
What we know
Container prices out of China to the U.S. West and East Coasts have escalated 344 percent and 335 percent since Feb. 28
The spread between the two coasts has accelerated to $3,177 per 40-foot equivalent unit, with East Coast-bound containers reaching $11,523 on average and West Coast-bound boxes averaging $8,346
Rolling forward three months, that could see spot rates into the East Coast in the range of $6,000-$7,000 and West Coast around $4,500-$5,500
The UAE’s National Association of Freight and Logistics says the total cost of moving cargo into the Persian Gulf is running three to five times pre-war levels
Attacks hit their highest weekly level since the war began, with at least 12 strikes on oil, LNG and LPG tankers in the week of Sept. 28 to Oct. 5