J.B. Hunt shares fall 12% after Q3 earnings warning flags 5%-10% EPS drop

J.B. Hunt Transport Services shares dropped 12% in early Wednesday trading after the company warned that third-quarter earnings per share could fall 5% to 10% sequentially. The warning implies a Q3 EPS of $1.77, about 16% below the $2.10 consensus estimate, and cites $25 million in extra driver-related costs and at least $10 million of sequential fuel headwinds.

Diesel prices rose 10% sequentially from July to August and have continued to climb through September, with sequential increases in eight of the 11 weeks of the third quarter. About 96% of J.B. Hunt’s operating income comes from its intermodal and dedicated units, which adjust to rate changes more slowly than over‑the‑road businesses. The company’s intermodal bid season begins in October, with roughly 10% of contracts set to renew in the fourth quarter, and intermodal freight is currently 32% cheaper than truckload, wider than the typical 10‑15% discount. Its dedicated pipeline sits at an all‑time high, while final‑mile remains the outlier in demand strength. Record fuel prices and elevated truckload rates continue to encourage road‑to‑rail conversion, and the company says it is focused on yield over volume until margins are restored.

The result would be roughly in line with the 2025 third quarter. While the 2026 third quarter may snap a streak of four consecutive quarters of year‑over‑year margin and earnings improvement. Intermodal contract pricing typically lags truckload pricing by two quarters.

What we know

J.B. Hunt shares fell 12% in early Wednesday trading.
Near‑term cost pressures are likely to cause a 5% to 10% sequential decline in EPS.
The implied Q3 EPS is $1.77, about 16% below the $2.10 consensus estimate.
Incremental driver‑related costs are $25 million.
Sequential fuel headwinds are at least $10 million.