Super El Niño forces retailers to rethink winter inventory
The Super El Niño weather pattern is prompting retailers to reassess their winter merchandise plans as December approaches. Analysts warn that warm winter conditions could hurt sales of cold‑weather apparel and force companies like Deckers to discount Ugg footwear if December temperatures rise.
The phenomenon’s strongest effects are expected in North America during the fall and winter months, disrupting typical seasonal merchandising cycles. With inventory already locked‑in well in advance for the season, retailers face the risk of sales misses and excess stock if consumer demand fails to materialize. VF Corp.’s brands, including The North Face and Timberland, are cited as carrying significant risk from warmer weather patterns observed in the 2015 and 2023 El Niño cycles. Historical data shows that warm anomalies in critical winter months have consistently reduced consumer spending on coats and other softgoods.
“This could be potentially one of the top 10 warmest winters starting in the month of December, so some of the decision-making that can happen with retailers is they shift their inventory too early and move it to discount,” Matthew Porcelli, meteorologist and senior solutions engineer at The Weather Company said.
“Consumers don't buy coats when it is warm outside,” Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo analyst said.
Just when merchandising and inventory management seemed complicated enough, thanks to shifting tariffs and rising costs, along comes the strongest El Niño weather disruption on record. Burlington because traditionally they have sold more coats and were hit hard by an El Niño a decade ago.
What we know
This El Niño is the strongest weather disruption on record.
Its impact will be strongest in North America during the fall and winter months.
This year’s event has been dubbed Super El Niño in some quarters.
Deckers may have to discount its Ugg footwear if December is warm.
VF Corp.’s brands carry significant risk from warmer weather observable in both the 2015 and 2023 El Niño periods.