WiseTech warns ocean freight booking risk stays elevated on Asia‑North America and Asia‑Europe lanes
WiseTech Global’s new Ocean Freight Risk Outlook says freight risk will remain elevated over the next four weeks on the key Asia‑North America and Asia‑Europe trades, driven by booking acceptance risk and weak service reliability. On the Asia‑North America lane, the demand‑to‑supply ratio is forecast to rise from 76% in week 37 to 100% in week 38 before easing to 79% and then 91%, while booking security risk is expected to stay at or above its historical average, climbing just above 40% later in the period.
Monthly on‑time performance for Asia‑North America fell from 43% in May to 33.9% in August, with weekly performance dropping to 29.4% in week 35, making one‑to‑three‑day delays the most common outcome.
“Multiple factors are at play, and the type of resulting risk varies significantly by trade lane,” Jon Charles, product manager at WiseTech said.
“For freight forwarders and cargo owners, Mr Charles said the consequences could include difficulty securing space, longer or less predictable lead times, and higher inventory and supply chain costs,” Jon Charles, product manager at WiseTech said.
What we know
According to its data, the demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to rise from 76% in week 37 to 100% in week 38, before falling to 79% and then 91%.
Booking security risk is expected to remain around or above its historical average, rising to just above 40% in later weeks.
Meanwhile, monthly on-time performance fell from 43% in May to 33.9% in August, with weekly performance dropping to 29.4% in week 35.
Monthly on-time performance declined from 34.3% in May to 22.9% in August, while weekly performance fell as low as 16.2% in week 34 before recovering to 24.5% in week 35.
Forward transit times, however, remain broadly in line with the 27.6-day baseline.