Foot traffic rises at Costco and Dollar General while spend growth diverges
Placer.ai reported that Costco’s store visits rose 18.1% from pre-pandemic levels, yet Facteus transaction data showed its spend growth slowed to 0.9% in Q1 2026 and turned negative in Q2. In contrast, Walmart’s visits were flat in 2025 but its observed spend grew 8.6% last year and accelerated to 14.2% in Q1 2026.
Costco’s transactions grew 1.5% in Q2 2026 while its average order value fell 3.0% over the same period.;In H1 2026, Gen Z spending at Costco increased 32%, while Baby Boomer spending fell 4.0% and Gen X spending dropped 3.8%;Target’s Q1 2026 visits rose 5.1%, transactions increased 6.4% and observed spend grew 7.7%, marking its first positive quarter after five consecutive declines.;In Q2 2026, Target’s transactions grew 6.8% but average order value fell 2.2%, reducing spend growth to 4.5%;Dollar General’s H1 2026 spend rose 5.7%, with transactions up 2.2% and average order value up 3.4%, lifting the average ticket from $21.23 in 2024 to $22.32.;Walmart’s transactions increased 9.2% and average order value grew 4.6% in Q1 2026.;Placer.ai described Walmart’s visits as essentially flat in 2025, followed by a 3.5% increase in Q1 2026.;In H1 2026, Walmart spend increased in every region and across every generation.;Nearly one‑quarter of visitors now shop there four or more times per month.;Observed spend increased just 2.5%, while transactions declined 0.7%;The traffic signal is strong.
Retail foot traffic shows which stores are attracting shoppers and where visits are increasing. But showing up is not the same as spending.
What we know
Costco is the traffic report’s standout, with visits per store up 18.1% from pre-pandemic levels.
Costco’s observed spend growth has slowed in every quarter since mid-2024, falling from 14.2% in Q3 2024 to 0.9% in Q1 2026 before turning negative in Q2 at -1.5%.
Observed Walmart spend grew 8.6% in 2025 and accelerated to 14.2% growth in Q1 2026.
Visits grew 5.1% in Q1 2026, Target’s first increase in more than a year.
Average ticket increased from $21.23 in 2024 to $22.32 in the first half of 2026.