ICSC Projects $1.7 Trillion Holiday Spend, 78% to Match or Top 2025 Levels
The ICSC projected that holiday retail sales will reach $1.7 trillion this season, forecasting growth of 4.3 to 4.9 percent. The survey found that 78 percent of consumers intend to spend the same or more than last year, while the top 10 percent anticipate spending five times the average shopper.
About 23 percent of respondents said they expect to still be paying for their holiday purchases in 2027. Nearly two‑thirds (68 percent) said discounts, promotions and exclusive offers will encourage additional store trips, and 93 percent plan to visit a physical store to buy or pick up an online order. Meanwhile, 61 percent said they will use AI tools or assistants this year, up from 47 percent in the prior survey.
“Consumers have made it clear they are willing to make sacrifices for the things that matter to them this holiday season, but they are making careful decisions about when and where they spend to make that money go further,” Tom McGee, president and CEO of the ICSC said.
Last year’s survey found 47 percent of consumers planned to use AI tools for holiday shopping, compared with 61 percent this year. Concerns about the job market affecting holiday spending rose from 43 percent in 2025 to 49 percent in the current poll.
What we know
ICSC forecasts holiday retail sales growth of 4.3 to 4.9 percent.
Total holiday spending is projected to reach $1.7 trillion.
78 percent of consumers plan to spend the same or more than last year.
The top 10 percent of shoppers anticipate spending five times more than the average consumer.
23 percent of consumers expect to still be paying for their holiday purchases in 2027.