Panama Canal Projects 29.5 Daily Transits for FY2027 Amid El Niño Drought
The Panama Canal Authority projects an average of 29.5 vessel transits per day for fiscal year 2027, which begins October 1, as El Niño‑driven drought curtails water supply. That forecast marks an 18% drop from the typical 36 transits the waterway normally handles.
The authority also expects 10,750 high‑draft transits for the fiscal year, a 6.5% decline from the prior budgeted level. Despite fewer ships, total revenue is forecast to rise 6.7% to $5.56 billion, with transit revenue climbing 5.7% to about $5.41 billion thanks to a shift toward higher‑value LNG and LPG cargo. Under a drought scenario for February‑May 2027, Neopanamax vessels could face a 44‑foot draft limit, reducing cargo capacity, while the canal maintains its current 48‑foot maximum draft pending reassessment of Gatún Lake levels.
“Even when there are 38 ships going through in a day, the administrator says only three spots are usually auctioned off,” Ilya Espino de Marotta, Administrator of the Panama Canal Authority said.
“the daily transit average could be reduced to 29. She said the limit would “probably not” be lowered to 24 slots,” Ilya Espino de Marotta, Administrator of the Panama Canal Authority said.
Officials had previously reduced the daily transit estimate to 32 as drought conditions worsened, and the canal saw transits fall to as low as 22 ships per day during the mid‑2023 to early 2024 drought. Panama declared a national emergency over El Niño in August, and the ACP warned that continued low rainfall could force further operational cuts. The current outlook reflects concerns of a repeat of that earlier dry spell.
What we know
The Panama Canal Authority projects an average of 29.5 vessel transits per day for fiscal year 2027.
That forecast marks an 18% drop from the typical 36 transits the waterway normally handles.
The authority also expects 10,750 high‑draft transits for the fiscal year, a 6.5% decline from the prior budgeted level.
Despite fewer ships, total revenue is forecast to rise 6.7% to $5.56 billion.
Under a drought scenario for February‑May 2027, Neopanamax vessels could face a 44‑foot draft limit, reducing cargo capacity.