Retailers expect U.S. holiday e‑commerce sales to reach $275.1 billion in 2026
Adobe projects that U.S. online sales for the 2026 holiday season (Nov. 1–Dec. 31) will rise 6.7% year over year to $275.1 billion. For Cyber Week, the five‑day span between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, Adobe forecasts online sales of $47.5 billion, a 7.4% increase, with Cyber Monday alone topping $15 billion, up 6.2%. Black Friday is expected to generate $12.9 billion, a 9.2% jump, making it the second‑largest single‑day holiday spend after Cyber Monday.
Adobe predicts that during Cyber Week, personal‑hygiene product sales will surge 150% versus September averages, clothing basics 210%, baby products 113%, pet items 93% and household cleaners 49%. The season’s top categories are electronics at $63.3 billion (+5.9%) and apparel at $51.3 billion (+4.7%), while furniture reaches $33.4 billion (+7.3%) and grocery, toys and cosmetics each near $26.1 billion, $9.6 billion and $9.2 billion respectively, all up about 10%. October’s Prime Big Deal Days are forecast to deliver almost $10 billion in online sales, pushing total October e‑commerce to $95.8 billion, an 8% year‑over‑year gain, while average discount depths stay flat versus 2025. Thanksgiving Day sales are seen at $6.9 billion (+8.5%) with 63% of orders on mobile, up from 61.6% in 2025, and mobile drives 82% of buy‑now‑pay‑later usage, lifting holiday BNPL to $21.3 billion (+6.6%) and AI‑driven site traffic to jump 130%.
What we know
U.S. online sales for the 2026 holiday season, which runs between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, are expected to grow 6.7% year over year to $275.1 billion, according to the latest data from Adobe.
For Cyber Week, which is the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, online sales are expected to be up 7.4% year over year to $47.5 billion, with Cyber Monday projected to set a new U.S. e-commerce record and bring in more than $15 billion online in a single day, representing a 6.2% year-over-year uptick.
Black Friday spending is growing more quickly than Cyber Monday, and is expected to be up 9.2% to $12.9 billion, representing the second-biggest single day of U.S. holiday spend.
The two-day happening is forecast to bring in almost $10 billion online, and “has become an industrywide e-commerce moment, with discounts happening broadly across U.S. retailers,” per Adobe.
Artificial intelligence will also play a major part in consumers’ discovery journey, with Adobe projecting that AI traffic to U.S. online retail sites this holiday season will increase 130% year over year.