United States tender rejection rate jumps to 14.32% after Labor Day
The national Outbound Tender Rejection Index rose to 14.32% in the days following Labor Day, according to FreightWaves data. Unlike typical seasonal spikes, the rise appears across virtually every freight market, with Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Harrisburg all showing higher rejection rates.
Strickland said capacity has not grown meaningfully, noting a three‑year period when rejection rates stayed below 5%.,The Labor Day shipping surge drove a steep spike in tender volume, pushing demand above 2025 levels.,Refrigerated rejections are rising with fall harvest demand, while dry van rejections are the focal point of the current move.,Spot rates are beginning to reflect the tightening, with Strickland warning of a 'little bit of a notch up' in the spot market.
“Capacity still has not grown in any meaningful way,” Zach Strickland, FreightWaves analyst said.
“We’re already starting to see a little bit of a notch up,” Zach Strickland, FreightWaves analyst said.
Capacity itself is a very slow figure to change over time, and the market had experienced a three‑year downturn with rejection rates consistently below 5%.,Unlike typical seasonal spikes tied to tropical weather or road‑check weeks, this increase is showing up across virtually every freight market in the country.
What we know
The national Outbound Tender Rejection Index climbed to 14.32% in the days following Labor Day, a move that FreightWaves analyst Zach Strickland says is unusual enough to warrant close attention from carriers, brokers, and shippers alike.
Notably, major freight hubs including Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Harrisburg all registered increases, meaning the move is not being driven by a single tight regional market.
By trailer type, refrigerated rejections are rising in line with seasonal expectations, as fall harvest demand pushes reefer capacity tighter — a pattern Van de Kamp noted tends to produce some of the highest refrigerated rejection rates of the year.
Dry van rejections are the focal point of the current move.
Spot rates are beginning to reflect the tightening.