AlixPartners forecasts 4‑7% U.S. holiday sales growth as shoppers shift tactics
AlixPartners released its U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook on Wednesday, forecasting 4 to 7 percent sales growth for the holiday season. Despite inflationary pressures, the report notes that actual spending has averaged roughly 5 percent above prior‑year levels each month throughout 2026. The outlook is based on a poll of more than 15,000 U.S. consumers surveyed over the year, which found 57 percent saying the economy is worse than a year ago and 37 percent planning to spend less this holiday.
Shoppers are responding by trading down to private‑label or mid‑tier brands only where they believe quality holds up, with high‑income households now spending over 50 percent more on private label than in 2019. Traffic at value retailers and off‑price stores rose 5 percent year‑over‑year, while trips to full‑price apparel stores fell 9 percent, and 47 percent of consumers plan to start holiday shopping before Halloween, up from 43 percent last year.
“Across the industry, retailers are wondering when consumers will stop showing up given the declining sentiment trajectory we’ve been seeing for the last few years,” Bryan Eshelman, Americas lead of retail at AlixPartners said.
“Even high-income households are moving in this direction, spending over 50 percent more on private label than in 2019,” the report’s authors said.
Industry analysts have said that up to half of the sales gain is due to inflation. In this year’s study, 57 percent of consumers say the economy is worse than it was 12 months ago, up six percentage points from last year, and 37 percent intend to spend less this holiday season (plus-2 points from last year), the report noted. The data showed that 47 percent of consumers polled said they plan to start shopping before Halloween, which compares to 43 percent last year.
What we know
4 to 7 percent sales growth forecast
57 percent of consumers say the economy is worse than it was 12 months ago
37 percent intend to spend less this holiday season
Actual spending averaged roughly 5 percent above prior-year levels each month throughout 2026
More than 15,000 U.S. consumers surveyed throughout 2026